Hi all
Here is a link for an article in New Scientist that discusses finding patterns in unlikely events - and how we can over estimate the likelihood because we focus on the available information. I spoke with Keith and we both thought it might help some people. But if stats aren't your thing then not sure how much help it will be.

The most apt quote is "Because we tend to focus on specific instances instead of the broader context, we fail to recognise the true probability of an event."


Hope it helps!


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